Volatility book-ended the last 24 hours. Late Wednesday evening (23:05–23:10 UTC) saw near-simultaneous spikes across VIC1 ($406/MWh), SA1 ($375/MWh) and TAS1 ($374/MWh), each roughly tripling prices within ten minutes before snapping back. Overnight troughs then dragged demand and prices low across the mainland — QLD1 demand fell to ~4,500 MW, VIC1 to ~4,700–4,950 MW — before this morning's ramp lifted NSW1 to 8,203 MW and $77.29/MWh, QLD1 to 6,911 MW and $72.50/MWh, and VIC1 to 6,366 MW and $55.52/MWh by 06:30 AEST. Watch the morning-to-midday transition today as demand builds further and Basslink continues flowing 206 MW Tasmania-to-Victoria, above its 157 MW nominal import limit under current constraint settings.
Tasmania was the standout region, running at 100% renewable penetration (hydro ~1,186–1,450 MW, wind 302–380 MW) for stretches this morning with zero carbon intensity, while also absorbing a extraordinary binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an $8.35 million/MWh shadow price between 00:10–00:35 UTC that whipsawed RRP between $40 and $88/MWh. TAS1 has since settled to $39.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST, a sharp retreat from Wednesday evening's $374.26/MWh peak.
WA1 ran hot relative to the NEM, averaging $129/MWh over the past 24 hours with a peak of $215/MWh — the highest average of any region reported today. No specific event drivers were flagged; the elevated band suggests tighter local conditions than east coast markets, worth monitoring into the weekend.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours, per STPASA. Gas hub prices firmed slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney up to $11.19/GJ (from $11.02/GJ) and STTM Brisbane at $11.41/GJ (from $11.03/GJ); STTM Adelaide sits at $10.70/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent climb, reaching $8.50 for the week ending 14 August, up from $6.45 just three weeks prior.