Overnight trading saw brief negative pricing ripple through SA1, TAS1, NSW1, VIC1 and QLD1 between roughly 00:50 and 05:00 AEST as wind, hydro and solar output outpaced low overnight demand — SA1 touched an extreme -$101/MWh at one point. Conditions have since reversed sharply: NSW demand climbed to 8,640 MW by 06:25 AEST with spot at $83.36/MWh, and VIC1 followed a similar path to $80.67/MWh. A major transmission constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) in TAS1 and a high-value NEM constraint (F_S++HYSE_R60, $964/MWh shadow price) both point to active congestion management. Watch the morning ramp across NSW1 and VIC1 as demand pushes toward daytime peaks.
TAS1 was the standout region overnight, swinging from near-zero and negative prices (as low as -$5.92/MWh) through the low-demand window to a sharp rise to $78.61/MWh within 25 minutes as renewable penetration hit 89.55% on combined hydro and wind output near 1,918 MW. The region's spot price sits at $75.73/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, underscoring how quickly conditions can tighten even amid high renewable contribution.
WA1 recorded the sharpest price action in the six-region set, with a moderate spike from $149.91/MWh to $276.54/MWh across two consecutive intervals — an 84% jump — before settling at elevated levels. The 24-hour average of $145/MWh and peak of $381/MWh confirm WA1 remained the highest-priced region nationally over the period.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices held steady, with STTM_SYD at $11.02/GJ, STTM_BNE at $11.03/GJ and STTM_ADL at $10.80/GJ on 19 August — all up modestly on the prior day. LGC prices continued their upward trend, closing the week ending 14 August at $8.50, up from $8.00 the week before and $5.85 a month earlier.