A mild night across the NEM saw brief negative pricing ripple through SA1, VIC1, TAS1, QLD1 and NSW1 as wind generation ran hard against soft overnight demand — SA1 touched -$6.11/MWh and VIC1 -$6.51/MWh in the 18:25–19:00 window, while SA1 also logged 97.9% renewable penetration around midday. A major transmission constraint in TAS1 (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m shadow price) bound for 25 minutes mid-morning without triggering scarcity pricing. Four of six interconnectors are currently binding as the network heads into the morning ramp, with VIC1 exporting 804 MW into NSW1. Watch NSW1 and QLD1 today as demand climbs through the evening peak shoulder — QLD1 has already moved to $59.90/MWh off an overnight trough near 4,700 MW.
NSW1 was the NEM's most active region over the past 24 hours, averaging $51/MWh and peaking at $99/MWh, and has resumed climbing this morning to $64.05/MWh with demand at 8,843 MW after an overnight trough near 7,150–7,400 MW. QLD1 followed a similar pattern (avg $42/MWh, max $85/MWh), while SA1 and VIC1 spent stretches of the day at or below zero on strong wind output — SA1 recorded 1,952 MW of wind against negligible solar during its negative-price window.
WA1 was the standout region for volatility, averaging $148/MWh with a 24-hour high of $309/MWh. Two distinct spikes hit the cap zone: $250.64/MWh at 07:55 and a sharper move to $308.8/MWh at 14:50, the latter a $84.52/MWh jump within five minutes following a 25-minute upward run. Energy managers with WA exposure should watch for repeat afternoon tightness.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours per STPASA. East coast gas hubs held steady, with STTM Sydney at $11.00/GJ, Brisbane at $10.83/GJ (down from $11.01/GJ) and Adelaide at $10.75/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward run, reaching $8.50 for the week ending 14 August, up from $8.00 the prior week and $5.85 four weeks ago.