A mixed 24 hours across the NEM, with mainland regions trading in the $45-$60/MWh average band while intraday moves stayed wide (peaks up to $91/MWh in VIC1). Negative pricing surfaced overnight in SA1, TAS1 and VIC1 as wind and solar output ran high against soft demand, before markets recovered through the morning ramp. The VIC-NSW interconnector is currently flat against its 803.6 MW export limit, fully utilised in the Vic-to-NSW direction — worth watching today as it caps how much Victorian supply can relieve NSW demand, which has climbed sharply to 8,958 MW off an overnight trough. WA1 remains the standout region on price levels; watch for continued volatility there through the evening peak.
Tasmania was the region to watch: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) recorded an exceptionally high shadow price of $8.35 million, driving regional reference prices to swing between $25.12 and $35.14/MWh during a single 20-minute period. This came alongside high renewable penetration (86.4%) from strong hydro and wind output, and two intervals of negative pricing (-$9.01/MWh) earlier in the day — a reminder of how quickly Tasmanian prices can move on constraint and supply conditions.
WA1 was the highest-priced region in the six-region set, averaging $122/MWh over the past 24 hours with a peak of $238/MWh — well above mainland NEM levels. No specific constraint or outage driver was flagged in today's data; energy managers with WA1 exposure should keep an eye on evening peak pricing given the elevated volatility.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices ticked up slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $10.82/GJ (from $10.46/GJ) and STTM Brisbane at $11.01/GJ; Adelaide was steady around $10.60-$10.61/GJ. LGCs continued their recent climb, closing the week ending 14 August at $8.50, up from $8.00 the prior week and $5.85 four weeks ago.