Overnight demand troughs across the eastern seaboard (VIC1 down to ~3,420 MW, SA1 to 490–680 MW) pushed VIC1, SA1, TAS1 and QLD1 into brief negative pricing around 02:15–02:20 AEST as wind and solar output outpaced load. The morning ramp has since lifted demand and prices in step — NSW1 to $57.92/MWh at 8,701 MW, QLD1 to $54.75/MWh at 6,549 MW — with interconnector loading light and no binding limits despite active constraint sets. Watch the evening demand peak for a repeat of yesterday's TAS1 volatility, and keep an eye on SA1's exceptionally clean morning generation mix persisting into daytime trade.
Tasmania recorded two separate binding events on the T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint with a shadow price of $8.352 million, alongside a near eight-fold price swing from $11.06/MWh to $88.24/MWh in just 20 minutes during the morning ramp. Hydro (around 895–1,496 MW across the day) remained the dominant contributor, with renewable penetration touching 85.3% despite the transmission congestion.
WA1 recorded the highest average price of any region over the past 24 hours at $73/MWh, with a peak of $109/MWh — well above the eastern states' $41–$55/MWh averages. No specific WEM events or constraints were flagged in today's data beyond this pricing gap.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane up to $11.38/GJ (from $11.11/GJ) and STTM Adelaide at $10.61/GJ, while STTM Sydney eased marginally to $10.46/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward run, reaching $8.50 for the week ending 14 August, up from $6.45 four weeks prior.