A relatively contained 24 hours across the NEM, with regional averages ranging $49–$87/MWh, though WA1 stood out with a $268/MWh peak. Renewable penetration hit notable highs overnight, with TAS1 touching 88.1% (hydro-led) and SA1 reaching 86.8% (wind-led) during the day. Tasmania's grid faced sustained operational stress, with the T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint binding at an exceptional $8.35 million shadow price across two separate windows spanning Friday evening into Saturday morning, alongside price volatility between $17.56–$136.64/MWh. Victoria remained firmly in export mode this morning, sending 599.7 MW north to NSW1 (70% of limit) and a smaller 16.4 MW into SA1 via Heywood. Watch today for continued interconnector flow patterns and whether TAS1's binding constraint eases as demand settles.
Tasmania's T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint is the standout event of the period — a $8.352 million shadow price recurring across two separate binding episodes (Friday evening and early Saturday), pointing to sustained scarcity on the affected transfer element despite high hydro output (807–903 MW) and renewable penetration above 88%. Spot prices swung between $17.56 and $88.24/MWh through the constrained windows.
WA1 recorded the NEM-wide high for the period, with a moderate price spike to $264.32/MWh at the 10:20 trading interval — a 21% jump from the prior interval — remaining elevated into the following interval before the snapshot closed. The region's 24-hour average of $100/MWh and $268/MWh max were both the highest of any tracked region, warranting continued attention today.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $10.80/GJ (down from $11.00) and Brisbane at $11.11/GJ (down from $11.69); Adelaide sits at $11.09/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward run, closing the week ending 14 August at $8.50 — up from $8.00 the prior week and $5.85 four weeks ago.