A volatile 24 hours across the NEM saw NSW1 lead average pricing at $81/MWh (max $184/MWh) as demand climbed sharply from an overnight trough of 6,692 MW to 9,082 MW by mid-morning. VIC1 and SA1 both recorded brief negative pricing overnight amid strong wind and brown coal output, while Victoria–South Australia interconnectors (Heywood and Murraylink) are currently binding at full export capacity, underscoring tight regional coupling. Carbon intensity this morning spanned a wide 0.059–0.766 tCO2/MWh range from Tasmania to Victoria, reflecting each region's generation mix. Watch NSW1 and QLD1 demand ramps through the day, and continued interconnector constraints between VIC1 and SA1.
TAS1 was the standout region, with a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) posting a shadow price of $8.35 million during the 18:25–18:50 window, briefly pushing prices to $32.60/MWh before moderating to $10–13/MWh. This followed a morning of high renewable penetration (88.6%, hydro and wind at ~2,372 MW) and two intervals of mild negative pricing overnight — together illustrating the range of conditions the region moved through in a single day.
WA1 remained the highest-priced region nationally, averaging $140/MWh with a peak of $268/MWh. Two isolated price spikes were recorded — $257.34/MWh on 11 August (22:55) and $267.98/MWh on 12 August (11:45) — each contained to a single trading interval before easing. No sustained stress evident, but the WEM continues to run materially hotter than NEM regions on average pricing.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11/GJ, Sydney at $10.78/GJ and Adelaide at $10.87/GJ, all up modestly on the prior day. LGC prices continued their recent climb, reaching $8 for the week ending 7 August, up from $5.05 three weeks earlier.