The NEM saw a mixed 24 hours, with QLD1 topping the range at $294/MWh amid morning demand climbing past 6,850 MW, while SA1 and VIC1 both dipped into brief negative territory (-$6/MWh and -$0.10/MWh respectively) during periods of strong wind output. NSW1 demand pushed to 9,183 MW at 06:30 AEST with spot at $130.54/MWh as the winter breakfast ramp took hold. VIC-NSW and Basslink interconnectors are both binding this morning, shaping price relationships across the eastern states. Watch today for continued volatility in TAS1 following yesterday's constraint activity and QLD1's sharp price response to rising demand.
Tasmania's T_BLINK_TV_NGZ constraint bound twice in 24 hours with an extraordinary $8.352 million shadow price, first during Monday evening and again in the 09:30–09:55 window Tuesday, coinciding with prices peaking near $67-77/MWh even as hydro (~1,100 MW) and wind (~320-344 MW) dominated supply. TAS1 also swung from an 89.3% renewable share overnight to a $320.16/MWh spike, underscoring how tightly bound network constraints can decouple price from underlying generation abundance.
WA1 was the standout region on price, averaging $149/MWh with a max of $613/MWh over the past 24 hours. A price spike to $266/MWh at 11:20 UTC escalated rapidly to over $366/MWh within the same interval — a 67% jump from the preceding $159.76/MWh settlement. Energy managers with WA exposure should note the speed of this escalation for operational planning.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs eased slightly, with STTM_ADL at $10.20/GJ (down from $10.60/GJ) and STTM_BNE firming to $10.48/GJ from $9.67/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward run, reaching $8/certificate for the week ending 7 August, up from $5.05 just three weeks prior — a trend worth monitoring for certificate-linked procurement strategies.