The NEM tracked a firm morning ramp into 10 August, with NSW1 demand up to 8,994 MW and spot at $92.80/MWh, and VIC1 climbing to 6,430 MW at $87.72/MWh by 06:30 AEST, both well off overnight troughs near/below $50/MWh. QLD1 demand jumped from a 4,758 MW overnight low to 7,083 MW, spot at $87.73/MWh. All six interconnectors sat within limits despite an active constraint set on QNI following an unplanned line outage. Watch today's midday solar/wind ramp and any repeat of Tasmania's overnight volatility, which swung from $5.33/MWh to $146.55/MWh in a single afternoon spike.
Tasmania stood out on two fronts: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) posted a shadow price of $8.352 million around 01:40–02:05, coinciding with spot prices of $35–$66/MWh, while later in the day hydro (~1,730 MW) and wind (548 MW) pushed renewable penetration to 88.3%, dragging prices down to $27.35/MWh before a partial recovery. TAS1's 24-hour range of $27–$147/MWh (max $147/MWh) reflects this swing between constrained and renewable-abundant conditions.
WA1 was the most volatile region overnight, averaging $125/MWh with a peak of $273/MWh. A sharp spike to $257.34/MWh hit the 09:35 interval, a 58% jump from $162.21/MWh the interval prior, with elevated prices persisting for two further intervals ($242.36 and $257.09/MWh) before settling. The event was contained to a short window in an otherwise stable WEM session.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. Gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM_SYD at $10.61/GJ and STTM_ADL at $10.60/GJ on 10 August, both up marginally from $10.50/GJ the prior day; STTM_BNE sat at $9.67/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward run, reaching $8.00 for the week ending 7 August, up from $6.45 the week prior and $5.05 four weeks ago.