Mainland NEM regions saw repeated bouts of negative pricing overnight as strong wind output (SA1 up to 1,910 MW, VIC1 combined wind/solar near 6,969 MW) met soft demand. SA1 and VIC1 both dipped below -$6/MWh in several windows between 05:00 and 20:25 AEST, with TAS1 also touching -$7.97/MWh in the early hours. NSW1 bucked the trend, spiking to $117/MWh around 16:50-16:55 as demand ramped toward 10,113 MW before easing to $76/MWh by 06:30. Today, watch NSW1 demand-price sensitivity through the evening ramp and whether SA1/VIC1 negative pricing persists into daylight hours as wind generation continues to run high.
Tasmania recorded a major binding network constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) around 07:35-07:40 AEST with an extreme shadow price of $8.35 million/MWh, pushing spot prices from ~$20/MWh to nearly $30/MWh before easing. TAS1 then swung through an eventful 24 hours — touching 87.1% renewable penetration overnight (hydro and wind dominant), a high of $88/MWh, and multiple negative intervals down to -$7.97/MWh — illustrating how quickly network and supply conditions can shift in a single region.
WA1 stood apart from the eastern states, averaging $109/MWh over the past 24 hours with a peak of $237/MWh — the highest average and ceiling of any region reported today. No specific WEM events or constraint data were provided, but the elevated average and volatility band warrant attention for anyone with WA1 exposure heading into the weekend.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $11.00/GJ (down from $11.21/GJ) and STTM Brisbane at $10.65/GJ (down from $11.17/GJ). LGC prices continued their recent climb, reaching $8.00 for the week ending 7 August, up from $6.45 the prior week and $5.05 three weeks ago.