The past 24 hours delivered classic winter volatility: strong overnight wind and hydro output pushed SA1, VIC1, TAS1 and even NSW1 into brief negative pricing between 03:00–04:30 AEST, while high solar mid-morning drove QLD1 negative too. By the 06:30 AEST snapshot, SA1 and VIC1 sat near $0.01/MWh on abundant wind (SA1 97.2% renewable share), while NSW1 ($109.96/MWh) and QLD1 ($97.80/MWh) firmed as morning demand ramped. Watch today's evening peak for a repeat of yesterday's price divergence as wind eases and demand climbs.
TAS1 was the standout region, with a binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) posting an extreme shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh twice in 24 hours, driving RRP spikes to $88.16/MWh and $53.15/MWh from otherwise near-zero or negative territory. Tasmania also hit 90.1% renewable penetration overnight on hydro exceeding 1,100 MW, before easing to $0.08/MWh by 06:30 AEST — a 24-hour range spanning roughly -$1 to $158/MWh.
WA1 recorded the highest average of the six regions at $119/MWh, with a peak of $192/MWh over the past 24 hours — notably firmer than all NEM regions. No specific WEM events were flagged in today's dataset; conditions appear to reflect typical winter demand and dispatch patterns rather than any acute constraint.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs eased slightly, with STTM Adelaide at $11/GJ (down from $11.56/GJ), Sydney at $11.21/GJ and Brisbane at $11.17/GJ. LGC prices continued their gradual climb, reaching $6.45 for the week ending 31 July, up from $5.05 three weeks prior.