All five mainland NEM regions swung through a volatile 24 hours, with peaks ranging from $265/MWh in SA1 to $312/MWh in NSW1 and overnight troughs dipping below $35/MWh in several regions as demand bottomed out. TAS1 was the outlier, spiking to $450.08/MWh around 13:00 AEST before collapsing to the $30s. This morning's ramp has pushed prices back up across the board — QLD1 at $130.51/MWh, VIC1 at $127.67/MWh and SA1 at $119.52/MWh by 06:30 AEST — as demand climbs out of overnight lows. Watch the morning peak build through mid-morning, with QNI and Basslink both running at high utilisation relative to their limits, though no interconnector is formally binding.
A high-value binding constraint (F_T+RREG_0050) reached a shadow price of $406.46/MWh overnight, with a second constraint (F_T++NIL_MG_R60) also binding at $403.12/MWh — pointing to significant network congestion or regulation service limitations across multiple dispatch intervals. This coincided with the region-wide price volatility, including TAS1's $450/MWh spike, underscoring how tightly network and regulation constraints can bite even when interconnector flows aren't formally binding.
WA1 traded in a comparatively narrow band over the past 24 hours, averaging $142/MWh with a maximum of $176/MWh — the tightest spread of any region and no volatility events flagged. A quiet day for the WEM by comparison to the mainland NEM's price swings.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. Gas hub prices ticked up slightly, with STTM Sydney at $11.19/GJ and Adelaide at $11.56/GJ on 6 August, both marginally higher than the prior day. LGC prices continued their recent climb, reaching $6.45 for the week ending 31 July, up from $5.85 the week before and $5.05 in mid-July.