A volatile 24 hours across the NEM, with prices swinging from negative territory in NSW1 (-$5.87/MWh at 01:30) to highs of $241/MWh during the morning ramp. As at 06:30 AEST, NSW1 is trading at $207.51/MWh with demand climbing through 10,056 MW, while QLD1 sits at $189.72/MWh on demand of 7,003 MW after a choppy overnight ramp. A major constraint event saw shadow prices hit $232,000/MWh across two binding regulation constraints (F_T+LREG_0050 and F_T+RREG_0050) — worth watching if similar conditions recur today. Basslink is running hot at 89.6% of its 459 MW export limit (411 MW TAS-to-VIC), leaving limited headroom should Tasmanian demand or Victorian import needs shift further.
SA1 was the standout region, averaging $165/MWh over the past day with a peak of $359/MWh around 15:50 AEST yesterday, alongside multiple intervals near $299/MWh. Demand has since eased to 1,585 MW at 06:30 AEST, well down from the overnight peak, but the volatility underscores how quickly SA1 pricing can move on tight supply-demand balances.
WA1 saw genuine action overnight, with two distinct price spikes — an 80% jump to $261.49/MWh at 04:05 UTC, followed by a sharper move to $338.23/MWh during the 16:20 evening demand interval, a $97.82/MWh jump from the prior interval. The 24-hour average of $151/MWh reflects this elevated volatility rather than a quiet session.