The past 24 hours saw a sharp swing from overnight negative pricing to a firm morning ramp across the NEM. VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 all dipped into negative territory overnight (as low as -$6.96/MWh in TAS1) as strong wind and hydro output met soft demand, before spot prices rebounded sharply by 06:30 AEST — NSW1 to $97.64/MWh, VIC1 to $92.52/MWh, SA1 to $102.66/MWh and QLD1 to $97.83/MWh, all tracking steep demand ramps. Interconnectors remain unconstrained, with Heywood (VIC-SA) running at 90% of its 586 MW export limit. Watch today for continued volatility around the evening peak, particularly in TAS1 where prices have been price-cap-adjacent through the morning.
TAS1 was the standout region overnight, recording a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with an extreme shadow price of $8.35 million/MWh between 23:05–23:10, alongside high renewable penetration of 90.4% (hydro ~2,438 MW, wind ~50 MW) and repeated bouts of negative pricing. Prices then reversed sharply, climbing from $65.14/MWh to $88.24/MWh through the evening and holding near cap-adjacent levels into this morning's ramp as demand reached 1,234 MW.
WA1 recorded the highest average price of any region over the past 24 hours at $122/MWh, with a peak of $243/MWh — well above NEM regional averages. No specific WEM events or constraint data were flagged for the period; the elevated pricing reflects broader system conditions rather than a single reported incident.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices eased slightly, with STTM Sydney at $11.39/GJ (down from $11.79/GJ) and STTM Adelaide at $11.50/GJ (down from $11.74/GJ); STTM Brisbane sits at $11.80/GJ. LGC prices continued their upward trend, closing the week ending 31 July at $6.45, up from $5.85 the prior week and $5.05 a fortnight ago.