A volatile 24 hours across the NEM, with VIC1 swinging from a $-504.65/MWh trough around 11:20 to a $237/MWh peak, while SA1 saw repeated negative pricing overnight into the afternoon before reversing sharply to $92.44/MWh by early evening as demand climbed. NSW1 demand ramped from a 05:10 trough (prices briefly at $0.01/MWh) to 9,112 MW by 06:30 AEST with prices at $71.40/MWh. Heywood interconnector is effectively locked out this morning under an active power system security constraint, reshaping the usual VIC-SA-NSW price relationships while Basslink and VIC-NSW run near full capacity. Watch interconnector flows and the VIC1/SA1 price relationship as constraints potentially ease through the day.
TAS1 recorded an extraordinary binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) with a shadow price of $8.352 million/MWh, occurring twice in the last 24 hours — first late on 27 July and again around 12:45 AEST on 28 July. Both events coincided with brief regional price spikes (to $11.54/MWh and $2.26/MWh respectively) followed by rapid relief into negative pricing within 10–20 minutes, against a backdrop of high renewable penetration (92.3%) driven by hydro and wind output near 3,420 MW.
WA1 recorded the highest 24-hour average of any region at $116/MWh, with a peak of $150/MWh. As at the most recent snapshot, WA1 was printing $99.90/MWh — notably firmer than the negative-to-low pricing seen across several NEM regions overnight, reflecting WA1's distinct supply-demand balance as a standalone market.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11.64/GJ, Sydney at $11.14/GJ (up from $11.15/GJ prior day — broadly flat) and Adelaide at $11.23/GJ, up from $10.96/GJ. LGCs closed the week ending 24 July at $5.85, up from $5.05 the prior week but still below the $7.00 recorded three weeks ago.