The past 24 hours delivered a familiar split screen: NSW1 (avg $96/MWh, max $300) and QLD1 (avg $82, max $262) held firm through the evening ramp, while VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 spent extended stretches in negative territory on strong wind output. VIC1 saw negative pricing across three separate windows (morning, midday and evening), with the 08:00 interval touching -$105.90/MWh amid 5,858 MW combined wind and 4,382 MW brown coal generation. As at 06:30 AEST this morning, NSW sits at $97.55/MWh on demand climbing to 9,295 MW off an overnight low of 6,990 MW — worth watching as the morning ramp continues and whether VIC/SA/TAS negative pricing persists into the day.
Tasmania was the standout region: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) hit a shadow price of $8.352 million around 11:40 UTC, coinciding with hydro output near 3,284 MW and wind at 739 MW. TAS1 also recorded 88.5% renewable penetration in the evening, with prices falling to between -$1.90 and -$1.16/MWh across five consecutive intervals from 20:05–20:25 as wind and hydro totalled roughly 1,868 MW against modest demand.
WA1 was the most volatile region on price terms, averaging $132/MWh with a peak of $261/MWh. A moderate price spike hit $260.88/MWh at 16:20, a 52% jump on the prior five-minute interval and 154% above baseline two intervals earlier, consistent with a transient constraint-driven event. As at 06:30 AEST, WA prints $118.61/MWh on its separate market — elevated relative to the NEM's negative-priced southern regions but not indicative of ongoing stress.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM_BNE at $11.52/GJ, STTM_SYD at $11.15/GJ and STTM_ADL at $10.96/GJ on 27 July, each up modestly on the prior day. LGC prices rose to $5.85 for the week ending 24 July, up from $5.05 the week before but still below the $7.00 print recorded in early July.