A run of minor negative pricing swept through NSW1, VIC1, SA1, QLD1 and TAS1 in the early hours as high wind and solar output met soft overnight demand, with troughs between -$1 and -$7/MWh across the 03:00-05:30 window. Daytime averages stayed moderate across the eastern regions (VIC1 $39/MWh to SA1 $70/MWh), while WA1 stood well apart, averaging $134/MWh with a $248/MWh peak. Today's watch points: NSW1's morning ramp pushing towards $90-101/MWh, and QLD1 predispatch showing negative prices persisting from 10:00-16:00 as low demand meets ample generation.
TAS1 was the standout region, reaching 91.8% renewable penetration on the evening of 25 July (hydro and wind of roughly 1,815 MW against ~1,965 MW total output), while prices swung from $15.20 to $63.40/MWh across five-minute intervals. Overnight, a binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) carried an extreme shadow price of $8,352,000/MWh alongside negative wholesale outcomes, underscoring how tightly local network conditions can shape dispatch even during high-renewable, low-price periods.
WA1 remained the priciest region in the six-region comparison, averaging $134/MWh over 24 hours with a peak of $248/MWh — a gap of over $114/MWh versus VIC1's $20.68/MWh morning read. No LOR conditions or constraint events were flagged for WA1 in today's data; the elevated pricing reflects tighter regional supply-demand balance rather than any network event.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs eased slightly day-on-day: STTM Sydney at $10.99/GJ (from $11.22/GJ), Adelaide at $10.90/GJ (from $11.00/GJ), and Brisbane at $11.45/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent climb, closing the week ending 24 July at $5.85, up from $5.05 the prior week, though still below the $7.00 level seen three weeks ago.