The NEM tracked a familiar overnight-trough-to-morning-ramp pattern, with NSW1 and QLD1 both dipping to brief negative prices (-$1.21/MWh and near -$6.50/MWh forecast lows) before climbing sharply from around 06:00 AEST. NSW1 demand jumped from a 6,895 MW trough to 9,557 MW by 06:30, while QLD1 added roughly 2,000 MW in the same window to reach 6,909 MW. Two Victoria-to-SA interconnectors — Heywood (644.7 MW) and Murraylink (144 MW) — sat pinned at their export limits into the morning, underlining tight coupling between the two regions. Today's watch items: how quickly VIC1-SA1 flows ease off their ceilings, and whether QLD1's morning ramp settles the $60s/MWh band seen at 06:30.
South Australia was the region to watch, swinging from an overnight low near -$3.91/MWh (04:30 AEST) to a 24-hour peak of $108/MWh, with the 06:30 read at $78.44/MWh on 1,618 MW demand. The move tracked wind and solar oversupply overnight — SA1 recorded sustained negative pricing (-$1.10/MWh) around 01:55-02:05 — followed by the Heywood and Murraylink interconnectors binding at their export ceilings as VIC1 wind (2,514 MW average) flowed into SA1 through the morning ramp.
WA1 was the standout region on price, averaging $128/MWh over the past 24 hours with a $250/MWh maximum — well above every NEM region. No further WEM-specific event data was available for this run; energy managers with WA exposure should treat today's elevated pricing as the key data point pending further detail.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Tasmania saw a severe binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.352 million/MWh shadow price) early on 23 July, alongside 92.7% renewable penetration (hydro plus wind, ~3,584 MW) between 20:05-20:30 UTC — prices stayed elevated despite the high renewable share. Gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Adelaide at $11.39/GJ, Brisbane at $11.30/GJ and Sydney at $11.00/GJ. LGC prices continued easing, down to $5.05 for the week ending 17 July from $8.50 four weeks prior.