NEM prices converged in a moderate winter morning band, with QLD1 ($80.84/MWh), SA1 ($80.44/MWh) and NSW1 (~$80/MWh) trading closely while VIC1 sat well below the pack at $37.48/MWh and TAS1 at $46.09/MWh, reflecting strong overnight wind and hydro output in the south. Three of six NEM interconnectors are currently binding, with Victoria exporting hard across every border — VIC-NSW flows reached 1,283 MW into NSW overnight. Over the past 24 hours, VIC1 recorded the day's highest ceiling at $128/MWh against a $54/MWh average, while SA1 touched $138/MWh. Today, watch morning ramps in QLD1 (6,766 MW demand) and VIC1 (6,246 MW and climbing) for how quickly southern oversupply clears as demand builds.
Tasmania was the standout region overnight: sustained negative pricing to -$9.59/MWh between 04:55–05:15 coincided with 1,203 MW of combined hydro and wind output, followed by a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) carrying an $8.352 million shadow price while regional prices stayed near $0.08–$0.14/MWh — a sign of significant network limitation despite low spot prices. TAS1 later hit 89.8% renewable penetration (~2,716 MW hydro and wind) before prices firmed to $46–49/MWh into the evening, and demand has since climbed to 1,205 MW from a 954 MW overnight trough.
WA1 remains the highest-priced region in this dataset, averaging $128/MWh over 24 hours with a $382/MWh maximum. A moderate spike to $252.50/MWh occurred during the 23:10 trading interval on 21 July, a 37% jump from the prior interval, coinciding with evening peak demand and minimal wind and solar generation. No further WEM data points were available for today's window.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. East coast gas hub prices eased slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11.61/GJ (down from $11.90/GJ) and STTM Adelaide at $11.45/GJ (up from $10.95/GJ); Sydney sits at $11.25/GJ. LGC prices continued their recent decline, at $5.05 for the week ending 17 July, down from $8.50 four weeks prior.