The NEM tracked a typical winter morning ramp, with mainland spot prices bottoming near $30-45/MWh overnight before climbing into the $97-117/MWh range by 06:25 AEST as demand rose sharply — NSW1 up to 9,414 MW from a 6,540 MW trough, VIC1 jumping 546 MW in just 25 minutes to 6,594 MW. Interconnectors remained unconstrained despite heavy loading, with Basslink exporting 408 MW from TAS1 to VIC1. Over the past 24 hours, SA1 posted the highest average price at $97/MWh (max $138/MWh), while QLD1 was softest at $68/MWh average. Today, watch for continued morning-ramp volatility and whether SA1's demand-supply tightness persists into the evening peak.
Tasmania stood out overnight with renewable penetration reaching 88.6% between 20:00-20:30 UTC, driven by hydro generation around 1,200-1,250 MW supplemented by wind. Regional prices held a modest range of $91-99.64/MWh through the settlement intervals, and TAS1's 24-hour average of $74/MWh (max $123/MWh) reflected a comparatively stable evening despite the high renewable share.
WA1 was the standout region for volatility, averaging $156/MWh over 24 hours with a peak of $388/MWh. A major spike to $308.95/MWh hit at 18:10 — a 30% jump from the prior interval, following a steady escalation from $171.45/MWh at 17:45 — and an earlier moderate spike touched $257.34/MWh at 09:30 after prices climbed from $166.67/MWh over the preceding 25 minutes. Conditions in WA1 remain notably tighter than the mainland NEM regions.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11.55/GJ and Sydney at $11.01/GJ on 20 July, both up modestly from the previous day. LGC prices continued to soften, with the week ending 17 July settling at $5.05, down from $8.50 four weeks earlier.