Mainland NEM prices eased overnight after a volatile evening session, with regions clustering between $49.81/MWh (SA) and $65.03/MWh (NSW) as of 06:30 AEST. NSW led on both average ($73/MWh) and demand (7,511 MW), while QLD posted the lowest 24h average at $47/MWh despite a brief negative-pricing episode. Yesterday's evening peak saw VIC and SA prices spike above $200/MWh as demand climbed — VIC past 6,800 MW and SA to 1,623 MW — before both retraced sharply this morning. Watch for a repeat evening ramp today as mainland demand builds through the afternoon.
Tasmania recorded a severe binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) overnight with a shadow price of $8.35 million, during moderate demand and hydro output near 990 MW — prices in the affected intervals stayed contained between $30–58/MWh. Separately, NSW saw a major constraint (N_QPSFB_L_9INV, $812,000 shadow price) bind during the 08:15–08:40 window while the regional price held steady around $90.49/MWh, underscoring localised network congestion despite calm reference pricing.
WA1 remains the highest-priced region on the 24h view, averaging $133/MWh with a peak of $180/MWh — well above NEM mainland levels, consistent with WA's separate market structure and demand profile. No specific constraint or generation-mix events were flagged for WA1 in the past 24 hours.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Adelaide and Sydney both at $11.04/GJ and Brisbane at $11.07/GJ on 18 July, little changed from the prior day. LGC prices continued their recent decline, closing the week ending 17 July at $5.05 — down from $5.25 the previous week and $8.50 four weeks ago. Renewable penetration was notable overnight in TAS1 (90.4%, hydro-led at ~1,063 MW) and SA1 (85.0%, wind-led at ~1,083 MW), both with prices holding in moderate ranges.