A tightly constrained network greeted Friday's morning ramp, with four of six interconnectors binding at 06:30 AEST as flows moved broadly south-to-north and across the Victoria-South Australia corridor. Overnight troughs were soft across the eastern states — NSW1 demand bottomed near 8,090-8,270 MW with prices around $63/MWh, while VIC1 and TAS1 both saw sub-$40/MWh pricing between 03:00-05:00 AEST. All regions are now climbing through the morning ramp, with NSW1 at $123.99/MWh (8,042 MW) and VIC1 at $110.40/MWh (5,821 MW) as at 06:30 AEST. Watch the Heywood interconnector and broader VIC-SA corridor through the day for continued constraint signals.
South Australia posted the sharpest 24-hour swing among NEM regions, averaging $110/MWh but spiking to $260/MWh, with demand this session ranging from an overnight low of 638 MW (03:55 AEST) to a much higher afternoon peak before easing to $130.44/MWh and 1,483 MW by 16:30 AEST. Tasmania also stood out for grid composition rather than price, achieving 85.6% renewable penetration in the evening settlement period via hydro and wind output of roughly 1,235-1,514 MW, even as prices there firmed from $90.96 to $99.73/MWh.
WA1 recorded the highest average and peak prices of any region over the past 24 hours — $160/MWh average, $289/MWh maximum — driven by a moderate spike to $252.50/MWh at 04:10 AEST. Prices climbed steadily from $161.75/MWh at 03:45, jumping sharply to $229.29/MWh by 04:00 and holding elevated through the remainder of the observed window. Energy managers with WA1 exposure should note the early-morning volatility pattern.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs remain firm, with STTM Sydney at $11.10/GJ and Brisbane and Adelaide both at $11.04/GJ on 17 July, Brisbane easing slightly from $11.20/GJ the day prior. LGC prices continue to soften, with the week ending 10 July settling at $5.25, down from $7.00 the previous week and well below the $8.50 peak recorded in late June.