Mainland prices tightened into a $107–131/MWh band by the 06:30 AEST morning ramp, with NSW1 leading at $130.56/MWh on demand of 9,597 MW and QLD1 close behind at $128.73/MWh as demand climbed through 7,195 MW. Over the full 24 hours, SA1 recorded the highest average at $112/MWh (max $187/MWh) while QLD1 posted the lowest average at $77/MWh despite a $175/MWh peak. The cheapest trading window remains the overnight-to-early-morning trough (roughly 00:00–06:00 UTC), which held across all mainland and island regions — worth flagging for any load-shifting opportunities today.
Tasmania stood out overnight with renewable penetration hitting 87.2%, underpinned by hydro (1,185–1,262 MW) and wind (149–158 MW). Despite the high renewable share, TAS1 spot prices swung sharply — from $21.16/MWh to $107.78/MWh within a 35-minute window — as demand rose roughly 240 MW through the morning ramp to 1,293 MW, a reminder that high renewable output doesn't always dampen price volatility during winter demand ramps.
WA1 traded comparatively calm over the past 24 hours, averaging $88/MWh with a peak of $127/MWh — the lowest maximum of any region. No specific WEM events or constraints were flagged in this cycle; conditions remain steady relative to the volatility seen on the eastern seaboard.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. East coast gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Sydney at $11.32/GJ and Brisbane at $11.34/GJ on 15 July, both little changed from the prior day. LGC prices continue to soften, with the week ending 10 July settling at $5.25 — down from $8.50 three weeks earlier — reflecting continued easing in certificate values.