A run of minor negative-pricing events swept NSW1, QLD1, VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 in the early hours of 14 July, reflecting a short window of structural oversupply between roughly 01:50 and 05:05 AEST as overnight demand troughed. Prices have since firmed through the morning ramp — QLD1 climbed from a 4,116 MW overnight low to 7,227 MW demand with spot at $78.70/MWh, while VIC1 and SA1 also tracked higher into the 06:25 AEST window. Watch today for continued volatility in TAS1, where a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m marginal value) drove a sharp scarcity-price spike overnight; six-region averages over the past 24h ranged from $40/MWh (TAS1) to $114/MWh (WA1).
SA1 stood out with a 24h price range spanning −$1/MWh to $260/MWh, the widest spread of any NEM region, alongside sustained negative pricing near 01:50 driven by strong wind (784 MW) and solar (208 MW) output. By mid-morning SA1 demand had lifted to 1,535 MW with spot holding in a tighter $101–108/MWh band, illustrating the swing between overnight oversupply and daytime tightening.
WA1 recorded the highest average price of any region over the past 24 hours at $114/MWh, with a peak of $189/MWh — notably firmer than every NEM region. No specific event flags were logged for WA1 in this window; the elevated pricing appears consistent with winter demand conditions rather than a discrete constraint.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the next 48 hours. East-coast gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Sydney at $11.31/GJ and Brisbane at $11.42/GJ on 14 July, both little changed from the prior day. LGCs eased to $5.25 for the week ending 10 July, down from $8.50 a fortnight earlier, continuing a softer trend through late June/July.