A volatile night across the NEM, headlined by an extreme Tasmanian price spike to $23,200/MWh at 06:20 AEST, tied to a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m shadow price) despite ~3.2 GW of hydro, wind and gas online. Negative pricing was widespread — SA1, VIC1, NSW1, QLD1 and TAS1 all printed sub-zero intervals overnight on strong wind and solar output, with VIC1 touching -$757.07/MWh at 00:15. This morning, demand and prices are recoupling: NSW1 demand climbed to 9,022 MW ($80.10/MWh) and VIC1 demand rose over 1,300 MW in two hours to 6,022 MW. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is exporting at its 1029.73 MW limit, binding. Watch the morning ramp for further constraint activity and price recovery from overnight lows.
Tasmania is today's standout: a $23,200/MWh spike at 06:20 sat against a 24-hour average of just $118/MWh, framed by a major transmission constraint and four consecutive intervals near the market floor ($0.09–$0.12/MWh) during an evening period of 91.7% renewable penetration from combined hydro and wind (1,376–1,846 MW). The swing from floor to extreme spike within hours highlights the volatility constraint events can introduce even with ample generation on hand.
WA1 recorded a 24-hour average of $131/MWh with a peak of $182/MWh — comparatively stable against the NEM's overnight extremes, with no constraint or negative-price events flagged for the region in this period.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East-coast gas hubs held firm, with STTM Brisbane at $11.87/GJ, Sydney at $11.21/GJ and Adelaide at $11.00/GJ on 13 July. LGC pricing continues to soften, down to $5.25 for the week ending 10 July from $8.50 a fortnight earlier.