Mild, wet weather across the eastern seaboard kept demand soft overnight, with wind generation pushing four of five NEM regions into negative pricing at various points — VIC1 (avg $6/MWh), SA1 (avg -$7/MWh) and TAS1 (avg $8/MWh) all spent stretches below zero as wind output ran into the thousands of MW. The VIC-NSW interconnector sat pinned at its 995.5 MW export limit through the morning, shifting Victorian surplus into NSW as prices diverged. Demand has since ramped hard into the morning peak — NSW1 up to 8,891 MW and QLD1 to 6,982 MW by 06:25 AEST — pulling both regions back into positive territory ($70-$73/MWh). Watch for continued negative-price windows in the south this afternoon if wind holds and demand stays soft.
Tasmania was the standout: a rare 100% renewable penetration interval (20:00–20:30 AEST, ~1,600 MW wind and hydro) coincided with a severe binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35 million shadow price) and repeated negative-price windows down to -$7.41/MWh. TAS1's price band swung widely across the day, from lows near -$14.83/MWh to highs of $88/MWh, reflecting the volatility that comes with high renewable shares plus network constraints.
WA1 was the day's clear outlier on price, averaging $139/MWh with a peak of $335/MWh. A moderate spike to $252.46/MWh hit the 07:10 interval after prices had already run at $245.59/MWh across the preceding three intervals, pointing to sustained morning demand pressure rather than a single-interval event.
STPASA shows no LOR conditions forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hubs firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane at $11.25/GJ and Sydney at $11.23/GJ (both up marginally on Friday), while Adelaide sat lower at $10.51/GJ. LGC prices eased to $5.25 for the week ending 10 July, down from $7 the prior week and well off the $8.50 peak in late June.