The past 24 hours delivered a familiar pattern: overnight softness giving way to a demand-driven evening peak across the eastern states. NSW1 demand swung from a peak of 10,232 MW down to 7,410 MW by 06:25 AEST, with prices easing to $59.97/MWh after touching $84.7/MWh overnight. QLD1 followed a similar arc, falling from a $99.04/MWh peak to $60.74/MWh as demand dropped from 6,400 MW to a 4,097 MW trough. VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 all spent stretches of the day and evening in negative pricing territory on strong wind and hydro output. Watch today for continued volatility around the evening peak (17:00–19:00 AEST) as renewable output tapers into demand ramp-up.
Tasmania stands out, briefly running on 100% renewable penetration during Friday evening as wind and hydro combined to cover all demand, pushing TAS1 prices to -$4.92/MWh before settling near zero. TAS1 also recorded a separate negative pricing window at midday (-$6.18/MWh) on hydro-wind output of 605–819 MW and 218–232 MW respectively, with no gas dispatched during either event — underscoring how weather-driven supply can rapidly outpace demand in a small region.
WA1 was the standout region for price volatility, averaging $167/MWh over 24 hours with a peak of $364/MWh. Two moderate spikes were recorded — $252.08/MWh at 11:20 AWST and $252.5/MWh at 17:10 AWST, the latter a 44% jump from the prior interval during the evening peak. Both events were confined to single 5-minute intervals, consistent with tight dispatch conditions rather than sustained stress.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Sydney at $11.06/GJ, Adelaide at $10.65/GJ, and Brisbane at $11.29/GJ for 11 July — little changed from the prior day. LGC prices continued their pullback, settling at $5.25 for the week ending 10 July, down from $7.00 and $8.50 in the two preceding weeks.