Demand eased across the eastern states this morning after yesterday evening's ramp, with NSW1 easing to $91.41/MWh (8,232 MW) from a $174.59/MWh peak near 5,392 MW in VIC1 and 6,178 MW in QLD1 at $87.73/MWh also sitting off their overnight highs. SA1 has held in negative territory for three straight hours (-$6.00/MWh) on strong wind output. Watch today for continued morning demand ramp-up across NSW1 and QLD1, and for any repeat of Tasmania's constraint-driven volatility seen overnight.
TAS1 was the standout region over the past 24 hours: prices swung from near-zero (as low as $0.08/MWh during a 100% renewable window at 20:05–20:45) to a $450/MWh peak, with a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, shadow price $8.35 million) recurring twice and coinciding with spikes to $139–89/MWh. Hydro (1,050–1,300 MW) and wind (150–180 MW) carried the region through both the negative-price and constrained periods.
WA1 recorded the highest 24-hour average of the six regions at $133/MWh, with a moderate price spike to $250.03/MWh at 08:45 AWST — up sharply from $142.46/MWh just 25 minutes prior. Day-average max reached $273/MWh, indicating a tighter morning supply-demand balance than the eastern regions saw overnight.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices eased slightly day-on-day, with STTM Sydney at $11.04/GJ (down from $11.24/GJ) and STTM Adelaide at $11.19/GJ (down from $11.30/GJ); STTM Brisbane sits at $11.30/GJ. LGC prices for the week ending 3 July came in at $7, down from $8.50 the prior week but above the $3.80–$5.00 range seen in mid-to-late June.