Winter morning ramps drove firm pricing across the NEM overnight, with NSW1 demand climbing from a ~7,750 MW trough to 9,117 MW by 06:25 AEST and spot prices lifting to $129.71/MWh. VIC1 followed a similar path, up from a 6,150-6,400 MW overnight trough to 7,048 MW, pricing at $132.56/MWh mid-ramp. QLD1 showed the steepest swing, from sub-$30/MWh around 9-10am yesterday to $105.53/MWh this morning as demand rose past 6,700 MW. SA1's overnight demand peak of 2,050 MW (around 09:35-09:40 AEST) pushed prices to $240.01/MWh before easing to $133.62/MWh. Watch today's evening peak across southern states as heating demand builds.
Tasmania was the standout region overnight: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) carried a shadow price of $8.35 million/MWh in the early hours, with hydro output around 1,100-1,220 MW and wind at 42-76 MW keeping regional prices between $67.89 and $96.28/MWh. Later in the evening, TAS1 renewable penetration hit 98.24%, with hydro near 1,500-1,600 MW and wind at 73-78 MW, as prices climbed from $102.71/MWh to $121.06/MWh over 25 minutes — an 18% rise. TAS1's 24h average sits at $129/MWh with a $246/MWh peak.
WA1 saw a moderate price spike to $252.41/MWh at 14:40 AWST, up sharply from $142.33/MWh just 15 minutes prior, before moderating within the same trading interval. The 24h average for WA1 sits at $136/MWh with a $252/MWh peak, reflecting an otherwise elevated but orderly pricing environment across the day.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. East coast gas hub prices held steady, with STTM Sydney at $11.24/GJ and Brisbane at $11.32/GJ on 9 July, Adelaide at $11.30/GJ — little movement from the prior day. LGC prices for the week ending 3 July came in at $7, down from $8.50 the week before but above the $3.80-$5.00 range seen in mid-June.