Volatility dominated the southern NEM overnight, with VIC1 touching a $19,070/MWh cap-approaching print at 09:40 and SA1 spiking to $875/MWh and $16,971/MWh at various points as morning demand met tighter supply conditions. TAS1 and SA1 both saw multiple price surges before settling back into calmer $100-130/MWh territory by mid-morning. A major transmission constraint (F_S+TBTU_R1, $208,800/MWh shadow price) briefly dominated price formation, alongside a secondary regulation constraint (F_T+RREG_0050, $216/MWh). Watch today for continued price sensitivity around the morning and evening ramps in the southern states as the market digests yesterday's volatility.
VIC1 recorded the standout event of the period, spiking to $19,070/MWh at 09:40 AEST — the highest print across all regions — following a steady climb from $218/MWh over the prior 30 minutes, with demand climbing to 7,011 MW. VIC1's 24-hour average of $369/MWh reflects this extreme morning volatility rather than sustained elevated pricing, with the region back to $129/MWh by evening.
WA1 saw a moderate price spike to $260.44/MWh during the 09:55 trading interval, a $56/MWh jump from the prior period after prices trended up from around $170/MWh over the preceding 25 minutes. The 24-hour average of $156/MWh and max of $266/MWh sit well below the extremes seen in the eastern states, indicating a comparatively contained trading day for the WEM.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Tasmania briefly hit 98.2% renewable penetration on the evening of 8 July, driven by 3,609 MW of combined hydro output alongside modest wind and gas contributions, with regional prices rising from $100.56/MWh to a peak of $126.28/MWh during the window. On gas, STTM hubs eased slightly day-on-day: Sydney fell to $11.24/GJ (from $11.66/GJ) and Adelaide to $11.51/GJ (from $11.47/GJ), while Brisbane sits at $11.52/GJ. LGC prices for the week ending 3 July came in at $7, down from $8.50 the prior week but above the $3.80-$5.00 range seen in mid-June.