NEM prices tracked a tight $108-128/MWh band into this morning, with winter demand rebuilding across the eastern seaboard after overnight troughs — NSW1 demand bottomed near 8,300-8,550 MW around 04:05 AEST as prices briefly touched $0.01/MWh, before climbing back to 8,901 MW and $127.22/MWh by 06:25. VIC1 and SA1 showed similar overnight-to-morning swings, with VIC1 rebuilding from a 5,426 MW trough to 6,764 MW alongside a $125.61/MWh price. Watch today for continued morning ramp volatility as heating demand builds and for any repeat of WA1's overnight price stress.
Tasmania briefly reached 100% renewable penetration between 20:05-20:30 UTC, with hydro supplying roughly 1,442-1,569 MW and minimal wind. Notably, prices still rose from $101.57 to $116.08/MWh over the period, and TAS1's 24h max hit $172/MWh — a reminder that high renewable shares don't automatically flatten price movement when demand and hydro dispatch shift together.
WA1 was the standout region overnight, posting a 24h average of $151/MWh against a max of $813/MWh. A major spike to $812.60/MWh hit at 23:55 on 6 July before normalising to $202.44/MWh the next interval — a sharp, short-duration event. Two further moderate spikes followed on 7 July, to $252.50/MWh at 08:25 UTC and $276.10/MWh at 14:20-14:45 UTC, the latter effectively doubling prices within 30 minutes. This morning's spot sits at $128.26/MWh, currently the highest of the six regions tracked.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per STPASA. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Sydney at $11.66/GJ and Brisbane at $12.27/GJ on 7 July, both up marginally from the previous day. LGC pricing continues to soften, with the week ending 3 July settling at $7, down from $8.50 the prior week, though still above the $3.80-$5.00 range seen in mid-June.