Mainland NEM prices tracked a tight $105-117/MWh band into this morning's peak, with VIC1 topping the stack at $117.39/MWh and SA1 lowest at $105.08/MWh — a modest $12.31 spread pointing to a calm start to the week. NSW1 demand climbed to 8,922 MW by 06:25 AEST, up from an overnight trough near 8,350 MW, with clear demand-price coupling evident across regions as the morning ramp builds. Basslink was the standout mover, exporting 403 MW (88% of its 456 MW limit) from TAS1 into VIC1 as Tasmania's low prices supported flows north. Watch SA1 and TAS1 today for continued volatility as wind and hydro output swing regional pricing.
Tasmania recorded 100% renewable penetration during the evening period, hydro output running 1,291-1,667 MW alongside 59-64 MW of wind, with no thermal generation required. Prices moved from $92.23/MWh to $107.33/MWh between 20:05-20:30 before easing to $89.19/MWh. Separately, a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, shadow price $8.35m/MWh) was active in TAS1 overnight, coinciding with a brief dip to $51/MWh before recovery to $85/MWh by midnight — a sign dispatch flexibility was tightly limited during that window.
WA1 saw the most pronounced pricing action across all regions, averaging $153/MWh over 24 hours with a peak of $335/MWh. A major spike to $334.52/MWh hit the 02:25 interval overnight — more than double the prior interval — during a period of substantial combined wind output (~1,292 MW). A second, moderate spike to $252.35/MWh followed at 10:10, capping a volatile session for the WEM.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM over the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices firmed slightly, with STTM Brisbane up to $12.21/GJ (from $11.31/GJ) and Sydney at $11.43/GJ. LGC prices eased to $7 for the week ending 3 July, down from $8.50 the prior week, though still above the $3.80-$5.00 range seen in mid-June.