Morning demand ramps drove prices higher across the eastern seaboard, with NSW1 climbing to $99.07/MWh at 06:25 AEST as demand pushed to 8,659 MW from a 7,177 MW overnight trough, and VIC1 up to $93.32/MWh on demand that rose over 800 MW in 90 minutes to 6,590 MW. SA1 and TAS1 saw similarly sharp morning increases off very soft overnight troughs (SA1 as low as $12.88/MWh, TAS1 briefly at $0.18/MWh). WA1 recorded the widest 24-hour swing of any region, spiking to $356/MWh. Watch today for continued morning-ramp volatility in NSW1 and VIC1, and whether TAS1's binding constraint persists into the evening peak.
Tasmania was the standout region: a major binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) hit a shadow price of $8.352 million around 11:05 AEST, coinciding with a price spike to $90.22/MWh, while generation stayed hydro-dominated (1,340–1,435 MW) with modest wind support. TAS1 also touched 100% renewable penetration for a 30-minute window during the evening, with prices holding near $88/MWh despite the abundant hydro and wind supply — pointing to constraint-driven pricing rather than a supply shortfall.
WA1 was the most volatile region in the six-region comparison, averaging $145/MWh with a peak of $356/MWh. A sharp spike to $335.18/MWh hit during the 08:55 interval — a 71% jump from the prior interval — following a five-interval escalation from 08:30, before prices stabilised. Energy managers with WA1 exposure should note the isolated but material nature of this spike.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. East coast gas hub prices held in a narrow band, with STTM Sydney at $11.10/GJ, Adelaide at $11.60/GJ and Brisbane at $11.31/GJ on 5 July, little changed day-on-day. LGC prices eased to $7 for the week ending 3 July, down from $8.50 the prior week but still above the $3.80–$5.00 range seen in mid-June. QLD1 also recorded two intervals of negative pricing (down to −$1.42/MWh) amid strong solar output (~4,802 MW) alongside coal generation, reflecting oversupply conditions rather than any supply constraint.