NEM prices swung wide overnight before settling into moderate ranges this morning. NSW1 troughed near $0/MWh between 03:00–04:30 AEST on demand as low as 6,750 MW, then climbed to $90.11/MWh by 6:25am as demand hit 7,851 MW. VIC1 eased off its 18:30 evening peak of ~7,780 MW to sit at $76.86/MWh with demand at 5,359 MW this morning. SA1 has held a remarkably steady $138–139/MWh band for two hours despite rising demand, now 1,492 MW. Watch for continued morning demand ramp across the eastern states pushing prices higher through the peak.
SA1 was the standout region over 24h, averaging $104/MWh and spiking to $227/MWh, alongside a period of negative pricing (−$3.29/MWh) at 21:40 on 2 July as wind (1,442 MW) and battery output (215 MW) drove oversupply. Tasmania also recorded a major binding constraint event (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ, $8.35m shadow price) on 3 July, even as spot prices stayed contained in the $36–55 range — a reminder that network constraints can bite independent of price levels.
WA1 was the most volatile region nationally over the past 24h, averaging $147/MWh with a peak of $347/MWh. A moderate price spike to $276/MWh hit at 03:40 UTC — a 75% jump from the prior interval's $158.16/MWh — before easing back within a single 5-minute interval. Energy managers with WA exposure should note the elevated volatility relative to eastern states.
No LOR conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours. Gas hub prices firmed slightly into 3 July: STTM Adelaide $11.75/GJ (up from $11.10), Brisbane $11.68/GJ (up from $11.38), and Sydney $11.29/GJ. LGC prices continued their sharp run-up, reaching $8.50 for the week ending 26 June — up from $3.50 just four weeks prior.