Tuesday evening delivered a split-screen NEM: Queensland and NSW held firm with average prices of $60/MWh and $67/MWh respectively through winter demand, while Victoria and South Australia posted averages near $10–11/MWh, each recording multiple negative-price intervals driven by strong wind output. Tasmania peaked at $97.85/MWh during the morning surge but has since eased. As of 06:30 AEST, SA is sitting at −$2/MWh with 1,648 MW of wind exceeding regional demand; VIC is at −$0.10/MWh. Watch the QLD morning ramp — demand opened at 6,764 MW and prices were already at $78.73/MWh — and monitor interconnector flows given two NEM interconnectors are currently binding against their limits.
Tasmania is today's standout region on two fronts. Between 20:05–20:30 UTC, TAS1 achieved 100% renewable penetration — hydro at 850–888 MW and wind at 240–275 MW, with zero gas dispatch — while spot prices held at just $23–26/MWh. Separately, a binding constraint (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) recorded an exceptional shadow price of $7.31 million during the 21:45–22:00 UTC window on 16 June, alongside regional spot prices averaging $86–91/MWh. That shadow price signals a significant network limitation on export or internal transfer capability, and warrants monitoring if the constraint remains active into today's peak.
WA1 was anything but quiet over the past 24 hours. The WEM recorded multiple moderate price spikes to $250–$253/MWh across at least four separate intervals — at 23:15 (16 June), 07:30, 13:40, and 20:10 (17 June) — each representing sharp 80%+ jumps from preceding levels. The 24-hour average settled at $181/M