Tuesday delivered a sharply bifurcated price profile across the NEM. Southern regions — VIC1 (avg $24/MWh) and SA1 (avg $23/MWh) — were anchored near zero through the afternoon and evening by strong wind output, with multiple intervals of marginal negative pricing recorded in both regions. NSW1 (avg $64/MWh) and TAS1 (avg $56/MWh) held firmer, while QLD1 (avg $54/MWh) tracked a tight demand-price relationship through the morning peak. The VIC–NSW interconnector was fully bound at its 963 MW export limit at 06:30 AEST, reinforcing north-south price divergence. Today, watch evening demand ramps in QLD1 and NSW1 where prices have shown sensitivity to load recovery.
Tasmania: 100% renewable penetration, 20:05–20:30 AEST. Hydro generation of approximately 890–920 MW combined with 143–148 MW of wind to meet all regional demand during that window, recording 0.00 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity. Regional reference prices rose from $51.51/MWh to $59.00/MWh across the six intervals — a modest upward move even as the generation mix was entirely renewable. SA1 also reached 97.8% renewable penetration around 11:15 AEST (wind at 1,757 MW), with the spot price touching $0.03/MWh at that settlement.
WA1 saw the day's most significant price event nationally. A major spike to $396.54/MWh was recorded during the 06:25 trading interval — a 117% jump from the prior interval at $182.68/MWh, following a gradual build from $167.53/MWh over the preceding 25 minutes. The daily average settled at $159/MWh against a NEM-wide backdrop of sub-$65/MWh averages. No further detail on the cause of the morning escalation is available in current data. The WEM's structural separation from the NEM means this event had no direct spillover effect on eastern market prices.
LOR: No Lack of Reserve conditions are forecast across the NEM in the next 48 hours per