The past 24 hours delivered a split personality across the NEM: deep overnight oversupply drove negative or near-zero prices in SA1, VIC1, and QLD1 in the early hours, while Tasmania's evening peak pushed prices to $131/MWh and Queensland averaged $50/MWh across the day. By 06:30 AEST, most mainland regions had settled into low single-digit or sub-$15/MWh territory, with VIC1 at $10.50/MWh and SA1 at $10.62/MWh. Tasmania remains the outlier at $81.76/MWh on 899 MW of demand. With no LOR conditions forecast in the next 48 hours, today's watch points are the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector (binding at its 982 MW export limit) and any afternoon demand step-up in Queensland and New South Wales.
Tasmania recorded 100% renewable penetration between 20:05 and 20:30 on 30 May, with hydro (578 MW) and wind (408 MW) meeting all regional demand while gas-fired generation remained offline. Prices held broadly stable at around $80–$82/MWh during the window — notable given the earlier session high of $131.33/MWh at 17:25 AEST, which coincided with a demand peak near 1,249 MW. TAS1's 24-hour average of $90/MWh was the highest in the NEM, reflecting its constrained interconnector position and strong evening demand profile.
The WEM was far from quiet. At 06:10 AEST, WA1 posted a $367.44/MWh spike — more than double the preceding interval price of $179.63/MWh — in a single trading interval during the early morning. The 24-hour average settled at $122/MWh with an intraday high of $372/MWh, making WA1 by some distance the highest-priced jurisdiction across both markets today. The cause of the spike has not been formally attributed in available data; energy managers with WEM exposure should review interval-level settlement data directly.
LOR: No Lack of Reserve conditions are forecast across any NEM region in