Thursday evening delivered a textbook peak-to-trough cycle across the NEM. Victoria hit 7,175 MW demand around 17:55 AEST, pushing prices to $272/MWh before collapsing to $10.72/MWh by 06:30 AEST this morning as demand fell to 4,794 MW. NSW and QLD averaged $73/MWh across the day; TAS ran highest at $98/MWh average. This morning SA is the standout at just $18.86/MWh with demand at 1,324 MW — well off its overnight peak. Watch: the VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is binding at export limit (929.96 MW north), a constraint worth monitoring as Friday demand builds through the morning.
Tasmania is the standout story of the past 24 hours. The state achieved 100% renewable penetration during the evening of 29 May, with hydro running ~2,019 MW and wind ~519 MW displacing all fossil fuel generation — spot prices held a narrow $87–$92/MWh band through that window. Behind the scenes, however, a major binding constraint on the Basslink corridor (T_BLINK_TV_NGZ) registered a shadow price of $7.31 million, signalling severe congestion limiting transfer capacity between TAS and VIC. A related NEM-wide constraint (F_T+NIL_MG_R6) carried a $4,420/MWh shadow price. Despite these network pressures, regional reference prices remained relatively contained at ~$97/MWh, indicating constraints were managed through dispatch rather than wholesale price escalation.
The WEM was not quiet overnight. WA1 recorded a $310/MWh spike at 04:55 AEST — a 42% jump from $218.76/MWh in a single trading interval, isolated to one five-minute window before conditions normalised. The 24-hour average of $152/MWh and daily maximum of $368/MWh confirm WA1 continued to trade at a significant premium to eastern states. Energy managers with WEM exposure should note that early-morning volatility has been a recurring feature this week.
LOR