Load Advisor: Thursday 21 May 2026
NSW1 sits at $134.89/MWh, VIC1 at $119.97/MWh, SA1 at $117.21/MWh, and QLD1 at $96.07/MWh heading into the Friday morning. The cheapest opportunity across the NEM is active right now in QLD1, where predispatch prices are forecast to go negative — bottoming near -$2.77/MWh between 08:30–14:30 AEST — making Queensland the standout load shifting target for any flexible consumers with cross-region exposure or direct QLD connections. NSW1 will see prices compress sharply from the current $134.89/MWh down to the high $20s–$30s range from 08:30 AEST, with the deepest trough around $23.88/MWh forecast across a sustained window from 11:00–15:30 AEST. VIC1 follows a similar overnight-into-morning arc, with prices expected to fall to $10–$12/MWh between 11:00–13:30 AEST — the lowest absolute prices in the NEM outside of negative QLD1 intervals. SA1 will compress from current levels to the low $9–$12/MWh range from 13:00–14:00 AEST, though intermittent intervals at $49–$60/MWh persist through the overnight and early morning hours, signalling SA1's characteristic volatility and warranting careful interval-level checking before committing load.
The clear windows to avoid are the morning ramp in all mainland regions: NSW1 and VIC1 prices will spike back toward the $65–$85/MWh range from 16:30 AEST onward, with VIC1 predispatch showing $75–$84/MWh at the 16:30 half-hour and SA1 jumping above $80/MWh at the same time as evening heating demand lifts with temperatures at 7–8°C in Melbourne and Hobart. TAS1 is structurally elevated at $87–$107/MWh across most of the forecast horizon and is not a viable load shifting target today — prices are forecast to remain sticky well above $87/MWh through to 18:30 AEST at minimum.
The single best load shifting opportunity today is QLD1 from 08:30–14:30 AEST where negative-to-near-zero prices are forecast across multiple intervals, representing a saving of up to $341/MWh against current spot. VIC1's 11:00–13:30 AEST window is the second-best option at $10–$12/MWh, representing approximately $496/MWh in savings versus the current VIC1 price. NSW1's 09:00–15:30 AEST band at $23–$36/MWh is the third-ranked opportunity. The concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable loads — industrial process heating, EV fleet charging, chiller pre-cooling, and battery charging — into the 09:00–14:30 AEST window across QLD1, VIC1, and NSW1. Avoid dispatching flexible load after 16:00 AEST in any mainland region as the evening demand ramp will push prices sharply higher across all interconnected states simultaneously.