Commodity Demand — NSW1: Saturday 16 May 2026

NSW spot price sits at $98.14/MWh with demand at 6,648 MW as of 06:30 AEST, well off the day's peak of 8,508 MW reached around 17:45 AEST during the morning business ramp. Today's demand profile follows a classic winter Sunday shape: overnight trough of approximately 5,835 MW around 13:10 AEST, a sharp morning ramp beginning near 14:40 AEST that drove prices from sub-$40/MWh into triple figures within 90 minutes, a sustained midday plateau in the 7,400–8,500 MW range with prices anchored between $97–$120/MWh, and a post-peak unwind now underway. Demand is currently climbing again from a late-afternoon dip, tracking up from roughly 6,260 MW at 03:30 AEST toward the 6,648 MW now, with prices responding in step — rising from $79–$81/MWh an hour ago to the current $98.14/MWh.

The price-demand relationship across today's trading record is instructive. Below approximately 6,200 MW, prices settled in the $24–$42/MWh band. As demand crossed 7,000 MW on the morning ramp, prices stepped into the $56–$80/MWh range, then locked into a $97–$120/MWh corridor above roughly 7,800 MW — a level that held persistently through the 17:00–22:00 AEST window. The current 6,648 MW level sits in a transitional zone where the market is pricing in approximately $98/MWh, reflecting both actual load and the expectation of a further evening demand lift. Temperature is 14.5°C with a heating demand signal of 3.5°C HDD, consistent with a mild winter evening load build rather than a significant demand surge.

The most recent forecast consensus for the 07:00–08:00 AEST half-hour (21:00–22:00 UTC) points to $113.58/MWh, up from earlier forecasts at the same target interval that clustered around $97–$108/MWh — a notable upward revision across the past two hours that aligns with demand currently tracking higher than the earlier part of the evening. Forecasts for 08:30 AEST (22:30 UTC) show a wider spread, with some runs printing $79/MWh and others at $97–$120/MWh, indicating genuine dispatch uncertainty at that interval. From 09:00 AEST onward, the forecast steps down progressively into the $70–$79/MWh range, consistent with overnight demand falling back toward the 6,000–6,200 MW trough.

One material network factor is active: Murraylink tripped at approximately 06:45 AEST today (invocation of I-ML_ZERO at 01:45 AEST per the notice, equivalent to 11:45 AEST) with constraint set I-MURRAYLINK already in force from 06:45 AEST following the Redcliffs Convertor outage. The interconnector's absence removes a pathway that typically supports NSW-VIC-SA transfers, tightening the NSW dispatch stack at the margin and providing upward price support independent of demand levels. This structural factor means any demand overshoot relative to forecast in the 07:00–09