Load Advisor: Thursday 14 May 2026
Spot prices are sitting at $79/MWh in NSW, $81/MWh in QLD, $66/MWh in VIC, $58/MWh in SA, and $108/MWh in TAS right now (06:30 AEST), with WA elevated at $237/MWh. The NEM-wide picture will improve sharply overnight as predispatch forecasts show a deep and sustained trough running from approximately 08:30 AEST tonight through to 16:30 AEST tomorrow morning, with prices in NSW, VIC, SA, and QLD frequently at or below $5/MWh and multiple intervals printing negative. The deepest sub-zero prices are forecast in QLD (as low as −$4.91/MWh around 13:30–14:00 AEST tomorrow) and SA (to −$3.24/MWh around 13:30 AEST tomorrow), offering the strongest absolute savings opportunity on the NEM. TAS remains structurally elevated in the $74–$108/MWh band throughout the overnight window and offers no comparable shift opportunity; Tasmanian operators should focus on load reduction during the current peak rather than timing a shift.
The clearest load-shifting windows across the interconnected regions are: NSW 08:30–16:00 AEST (prices $0–$15/MWh, savings of $65–$119/MWh versus current); VIC 11:00–16:00 AEST (prices $0–$3/MWh, with several negative intervals); SA 11:00–16:30 AEST (prices $0–$5/MWh, with negative prints from 12:00 AEST); and QLD 10:30–16:00 AEST (prices $0–$6/MWh, with negative intervals from 13:30 AEST). The optimal concentration window common across all four mainland regions is 13:00–15:30 AEST tomorrow, where forecasts are consistently at or below $5/MWh. Morning demand will ramp back up sharply from 16:00–16:30 AEST as the breakfast load builds, with prices forecast to return to the $30–$45/MWh range in NSW and VIC and $37–$45/MWh in QLD by 16:30 AEST.
The concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable loads — industrial process restart, EV fleet charging, hot water systems, battery recharge, HVAC pre-conditioning — to commence no earlier than 09:00 AEST and complete by 15:30 AEST tomorrow. QLD and SA operators will capture the greatest savings per MWh, particularly between 13:00 and 15:00 AEST when prices are forecast to go negative. NSW and VIC operators will find the 10:30–15:00 AEST window most reliable given the depth and consistency of forecasts in that band. Avoid scheduling any flexible load between 16:00 AEST tomorrow and 08:00 AEST tonight, as current prices represent the evening peak. TAS loads are best shed or deferred now and held until predispatch signals improve, which the current data does not indicate will occur within this forecast horizon.