Commodity Demand — NSW1: Thursday 14 May 2026

NSW spot sits at $98.60/MWh with demand at 7,962 MW as of 06:35 AEST, and the trajectory is upward. Demand climbed from a overnight trough near 6,600–6,700 MW through the early morning, crossing back through 7,000 MW around 11:00 AEST and now accelerating toward what is a clear evening ramp. The price-demand relationship has been tight across today's data: when demand hit its intraday peak above 9,300 MW during the 17:00–19:30 AEST window, spot cleared between $130–$217/MWh, with a single spike to $217.82/MWh at 18:55 AEST. As demand retreated through the 8,000–9,000 MW band during mid-morning, prices compressed into the $97–$133/MWh range. The afternoon trough — demand falling to around 6,600 MW between 02:00–07:00 AEST — produced the day's lowest prices, dipping to $12.51/MWh at 10:05 AEST.

The current demand level of 7,962 MW is still well below today's demonstrated peak of ~9,395 MW, but the rate of climb since 09:00 AEST (roughly +1,300 MW in under two hours of trading data) indicates the evening ramp is underway. Forecast data for the 07:00–08:30 AEST target periods pointed to prices in the $77–$84/MWh range, but actual outcomes ran $115–$140/MWh once demand cleared 8,800 MW — a consistent pattern of forecast under-pricing during the demand ramp. The most recent forecast for the 07:00 AEST target (06:35 AEST issue) sits at $77/MWh, which the current $98.60/MWh print is already exceeding with demand still rising.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal at 5,301 MW, wind at 768 MW, hydro at 548 MW, solar at 147 MW, battery at 20 MW, and gas OCGT at 20 MW. With solar output minimal at this time of day and wind contribution modest, further demand growth will rely on thermal and hydro dispatch, placing upward pressure on marginal cost pricing. Carbon intensity sits at 0.6876 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 21.79% — consistent with the evening profile where solar has wound down. A non-conformance notice is active for unit BW04 (Bayswater coal unit) covering a -28 MW deviation between 11:30–11:40 AEST this morning, which is a minor capacity consideration but worth monitoring if the unit's output remains constrained into the peak.

Looking ahead, load window forecasts across the 08:30–10:30 AEST period (22:30–00:30 UTC) project prices as low as $0–$36/MWh — consistent with the overnight demand trough pattern seen in today's data where demand typically falls toward 6,700–7,000 MW and prices compress sharply. The critical pricing window is the 07:00–09:30 AEST ramp tomorrow, where today's experience suggests prices can move from sub-$80/MWh to $130–$200+/MW