Load Advisor: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Spot prices across the interconnected NEM regions are sitting between $84/MWh (SA1) and $106/MWh (TAS1) at the 08:35 AEST reference point, with NSW1 at $97/MWh, QLD1 at $93/MWh, and VIC1 at $88/MWh. Queensland's predispatch data stands out immediately: prices will fall to negative or near-zero territory from 09:30 AEST onwards through the overnight window, with QLD1 touching -$25/MWh in multiple intervals between 11:00 and 13:30 AEST. This is the single strongest load-shifting opportunity on the NEM today. NSW1 predispatch shows prices stepping down to the $11–24/MWh range from 10:00 AEST, with isolated intervals dipping as low as $11.29/MWh through to approximately 15:30 AEST before prices climb above $50/MWh. VIC1 and SA1 follow a similar overnight trough pattern, with prices dropping to $8.94–9/MWh in both regions from around 10:30 AEST through to 14:30 AEST — SA1 reaches as low as $4.55/MWh in one interval at 14:30 AEST. Tasmania remains the outlier: prices sit persistently in the $65–100/MWh band throughout the outlook horizon with no meaningful overnight trough, making TAS1 the weakest shifting opportunity of the five NEM mainland and island regions covered here.

The morning demand ramp and associated price recovery will arrive from approximately 16:00 AEST across all mainland regions, with NSW1 predispatch indicating a jump to $50–56/MWh by 16:00 AEST, VIC1 and SA1 to $45–50/MWh, and QLD1 to $38–49/MWh. Flexible operators should treat 15:30–16:00 AEST as the hard cutoff for any load that needs to be returned to baseline before the evening peak. The evening peak risk window is 16:00–20:00 AEST, and current spot prices already in the $87–97/MWh range for VIC1, NSW1, and QLD1 confirm the morning session is already within the elevated bracket — there is no advantage to running flexible load right now.

**Concrete scheduling recommendation:** Defer all shiftable loads — industrial process heating, cool-store pull-down, EV fleet charging, water heating, and HVAC pre-conditioning — until 10:00 AEST. The optimal load window is **10:00 to 15:00 AEST** across QLD1, NSW1, VIC1, and SA1, with QLD1 offering the deepest savings at negative to low single-digit $/MWh and SA1 offering the lowest absolute floor price (~$4.55/MWh at 14:30 AEST). NSW1 and VIC1 will provide consistent sub-$12/MWh pricing through the same window. For loads that can absorb a two-hour lag on commencement, the **11:00 to 14:30 AEST** band will represent the deepest trough across all four mainland regions simultaneously. TAS1 operators have no comparable opportunity today and should focus on demand management during current elevated pricing rather