Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 13 May 2026

Tasmania's spot price sits at $106.24/MWh with demand at 1,134 MW as of 6:35 AEST, and the region is in the middle of a pronounced evening ramp. Demand bottomed near 920 MW during the mid-afternoon trough around 3:30–4:00 AEST before climbing steadily through the evening. The price response to this ramp is tight: the $96.24/MWh floor that dominated the overnight and daytime periods gave way to consistent $106.24/MWh pricing from approximately 4:30 AEST onward as demand crossed the 1,000 MW threshold and kept rising. The current trajectory — demand up roughly 215 MW from the afternoon floor in under three hours — mirrors the morning peak pattern, where demand reached 1,299 MW at 6:10 AEST and prices locked in at $106.12–$106.20/MWh across that block.

The price sensitivity picture is relatively binary today. Below roughly 1,000 MW, the market clears at or near $88–$96/MWh; above that level, dispatchers are pulling in gas OCGT (currently 57.85 MW) alongside hydro (1,049.94 MW) and wind (129.63 MW), and prices step up to the $106/MWh band. That gas dispatch is the marginal price setter at current demand levels — the price floor shifts the moment OCGT is required to cover the shortfall between hydro and wind output and actual load. The one exception today was a brief $164.06/MWh spike at 10:50 AEST when demand sat at just 990 MW, suggesting a short-duration dispatch constraint rather than a structural demand event.

Forecast RRP for the 7:00 AEST and 7:30 AEST half-hours sits at $106.26/MWh, consistent with the current print, indicating the market expects demand to remain above the OCGT dispatch threshold through the evening peak. With current temperature at 6.1°C, 100% cloud cover, and a heating demand index of 11.9, residential load is not expected to ease materially until late tonight. The load window data supports this — optimal price windows for flexible loads are flagged from 8:30 AEST onward (UTC 22:30+), with forecast prices stepping down to the high $80s–low $90s/MWh as demand retreats from the evening peak toward overnight minimums around 930–960 MW.

Demand managers with flexibility should note the evening peak is likely to sustain the $106/MWh price band for the next two to three hours before the overnight softening. The MT PASA reserve notice confirms no LOR conditions are forecast for the region, so the price pressure tonight is demand-driven rather than capacity-constrained.