Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 12 May 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $96.24/MWh with demand at 1,163 MW at 06:30 AEST — a level that has proved comfortable for the market to absorb at the base price tier. The data reveals a well-defined two-tier price structure: demand above roughly 1,250–1,290 MW during the earlier evening period pushed prices into the $106–$121/MWh range, while demand below that threshold has been consistently cleared at $96.22–$96.24/MWh throughout the day. The market is currently sitting just below that threshold, with demand rising steadily from a daytime trough near 957 MW at 14:30 AEST.
The demand trajectory is the key price variable to watch today. The 24-hour profile shows demand troughed in the early afternoon hours before a clear upward ramp beginning around 03:00 AEST, and the current reading of 1,163 MW is tracking toward the 1,200–1,300 MW range that historically triggers the higher price tier. Forecasts for the 07:00 and 07:30 AEST half-hours are anchored at $96.24/MWh, indicating AEMO's dispatch engine is not yet pricing in a supply squeeze for the next two periods. Temperature sits at 8.2°C with heating demand at 9.8 and 99% cloud cover, which is consistent with continued demand growth through the evening residential peak. The overnight low tomorrow is forecast at 7.6°C, supporting sustained heating load.
The early-morning forecast revision is worth noting for context: AEMO's pre-dawn STPASA runs flagged the 07:00 AEST period as high as $160.77/MWh before those forecasts were revised sharply downward to $96.24/MWh by 15:00 AEST — a 43% reduction in forecast price that tracked the actual demand outcome settling below the critical 1,300 MW threshold. This pattern suggests the dispatch system is sensitive to demand forecasts in the 1,250–1,330 MW band. Generation is currently supplied by 1,105 MW of hydro and 122 MW of wind, with gas OCGT at zero, indicating sufficient hydro headroom to absorb the evening ramp without immediate recourse to more expensive peaking capacity. The MTPASA reserve notice confirms no Low Reserve Conditions are identified for the period ahead.
The price outlook for the remainder of today hinges on whether evening demand clears 1,250 MW. If the ramp mirrors the profile seen through the earlier period — where demand peaked near 1,325 MW around 08:10 AEST — prices are likely to step into the $106–$110/MWh band for one to three dispatch intervals before easing. Below 1,250 MW, the $96.24/MWh floor appears well-supported. Traders with flexible load above 1 MW should monitor the 06:30–08:00 AEST window closely; demand-side response in that band has historically been sufficient to keep pricing below the upper tier.