Commodity Demand — NSW1: Tuesday 12 May 2026

NSW spot price sits at $97.65/MWh with demand at 7,722 MW as of 06:30 AEST, climbing from a session low near 6,380 MW around 04:00 AEST as the post-midnight trough gives way to the morning ramp. The price-demand relationship across today's history is direct and consistent: demand above 9,000 MW during the 17:00–18:30 AEST morning peak drove prices into the $84–$96/MWh band, while the overnight nadir below 7,000 MW produced spot as low as $23–$25/MWh. The current $97.65/MWh print reflects demand building back through the 7,700 MW level on the evening ramp, with each 200–300 MW step-up since 05:30 AEST accompanied by a roughly $10–$15/MWh price increment.

The 5-minute price trajectory over the past hour tells the demand story directly: $81.07/MWh at 5,269 MW demand at 06:05 AEST rising through $84.65, $92.39, $93.31, $93.64 to the current $97.65/MWh as demand climbed 453 MW in 25 minutes. Forecast pricing for the 07:00 AEST interval (21:00 UTC) is consistently modelled at $91.70–$97.67/MWh across the past several PASA runs, confirming the market expects demand to remain in the zone that keeps prices in the high-$90s. The next scheduled peak of consequence is the morning demand apex, which on today's trajectory will likely test 8,000–8,400 MW in the 17:30–19:30 AEST window — the same corridor that produced $84–$100/MWh earlier in the morning session.

Overnight price behaviour between 13:00–16:30 AEST (03:00–06:30 UTC) is the key reference for deferred-load decisions. Demand dropped below 6,600 MW and prices fell to $23–$36/MWh across that window, a spread of roughly $60–$74/MWh below the current level. Forecast load windows confirm that pattern repeats tonight, with prices in the $9–$36/MWh range between 08:30 and 15:30 AEST (tomorrow), bottoming under $10/MWh around the 11:00–13:30 AEST window. Grid stress is scored at 88.4/100, reinforcing that current demand levels are stretching available capacity and sustaining the price premium above $90/MWh. The MT PASA reserve notice (issued 12:35 AEST) identifies no Low Reserve Conditions, so the elevated pricing reflects tight but manageable supply-demand balance rather than a reserve shortfall.

Carbon intensity at 0.6464 tCO2/MWh with 26.45% renewables reflects a generation mix of 5,616 MW black coal, 890 MW wind, 748 MW hydro, 281 MW battery, 111 MW solar and 27 MW gas OCGT at the current interval. As demand climbs through the evening into the 8,000–9,000 MW range, the historical intraday pattern shows intensity tightening back toward 0.63–0.65 tCO