Load Advisor: Monday 11 May 2026
NEM-wide spot prices are moderate across the interconnected regions this morning, with NSW1 at $84.79/MWh, VIC1 at $82.20/MWh, SA1 at $85.06/MWh, and QLD1 at $80.04/MWh. TAS1 sits notably higher at $106.24/MWh and will offer no overnight reprieve — predispatch holds it at $96.24/MWh flat throughout the forecast horizon with no material dip, making Tasmania the one region where load shifting offers limited price benefit today. QLD1 is the standout opportunity: predispatch shows prices collapsing to near-zero and sub-$5/MWh between 10:30 AEST and 14:30 AEST (00:30–04:30 UTC), with some intervals printing negative. NSW1 and VIC1 both show excellent overnight windows from 09:30 AEST through to 15:00 AEST, with NSW1 troughing at $13–$24/MWh and VIC1 reaching lows of $9–$13/MWh across the 12:30–15:00 AEST band. SA1 offers its best windows between 12:30 and 15:00 AEST, with predispatch showing prices as low as $3.61–$7/MWh in the 13:30 AEST interval — the deepest absolute trough among the mainland regions on a $/MWh basis.
The sharpest price rises will occur at the bookends of the day. NSW1, VIC1, and QLD1 are all forecast to firm back above $50–$80/MWh by 16:30 AEST as the morning ramp begins, and SA1 returns to the $79–$88/MWh range from 15:30 AEST onward. Operators with flexible loads in these regions should treat anything after 16:00 AEST as avoid territory for today. The evening peak is not yet fully visible in this predispatch horizon, but historical autumn patterns and the current heating demand signals — VIC1 at 9.5°C with a heating demand index of 9.5, TAS1 at 10.7°C — confirm an evening ramp risk between 17:00–20:00 AEST across the southern states. VIC1's solar potential of 15.3 for today's daylight hours suggests some midday price softness will persist but will not extend past 15:30 AEST.
The concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable loads — industrial heating, EV charging fleets, pumping, cool stores, water treatment — to execute between 10:00 and 15:00 AEST today. QLD1 operators should front-load to the 10:30–13:00 AEST window where prices will be sub-$5/MWh. NSW1 and VIC1 operators will find the 12:00–14:30 AEST window optimal, with VIC1 offering the lowest absolute prices on the mainland. SA1 loads should target the 12:30–14:30 AEST slot specifically, given the sharp reversal to $79/MWh forecast from 15:30 AEST. TAS1 operators have no material load shifting opportunity in today's predispatch — the $96.24/MWh floor