Load Advisor

Predispatch pricing across NSW, VIC, QLD, and SA points to a sustained overnight trough beginning from 09:30 AEST tonight and running through to approximately 16:30 AEST tomorrow morning, with prices forecast at or below zero in all four mainland regions across multiple intervals. NSW prices will drop to a floor of around -$2.57/MWh at 11:00 AEST, VIC to -$3.45/MWh at 13:00 AEST, SA to -$4.00/MWh at 13:30 AEST, and QLD to -$4.61/MWh at 13:00 AEST — each representing savings of $135–$140/MWh relative to current spot levels. The deepest and most persistent negative pricing sits in the 10:00–14:00 AEST window, making this the highest-priority slot for deferrable loads NEM-wide. TAS is the clear outlier: prices sit at $88–$106/MWh across the entire forecast horizon with no meaningful overnight softening, so load shifting advice for Tasmanian-connected operations is not applicable this cycle.

The morning ramp is the key avoidance window. NSW and VIC prices are forecast to snap back to the high $30s–$50/MWh range from approximately 16:30–17:00 AEST, and SA prices are expected to spike to $40–$75/MWh from 16:30 AEST with one interval touching $70.47/MWh. QLD shows a similar structure, with prices consolidating around $39–$40/MWh from 15:00–15:30 AEST onward. Operators should plan to have flexible loads fully ramped down or back to normal profile by 15:30 AEST to avoid the morning peak exposure. SA carries the sharpest morning ramp risk: a predispatch interval at 17:00 AEST shows $86.98/MWh, consistent with recent spot of $81.14/MWh, confirming the morning peak is well-telegraphed.

The concrete recommendation: schedule all deferrable load — cold storage pre-cooling, EV fleet charging, water pumping, industrial process loads — to begin no later than 09:30 AEST tonight and target the core 10:00–14:00 AEST window for maximum exposure to negative or near-zero prices. SA and QLD offer the deepest negative price intervals and are the strongest priority for flexible load scheduling. NSW and VIC are close behind with similarly structured overnight profiles. Loads requiring a longer run window should schedule from 09:30 AEST tonight through to 15:00 AEST tomorrow to capture the full trough while clearing the morning ramp. Battery operators in NSW and VIC should target charge completion by 15:00 AEST to position for the evening peak discharge cycle.