Load Advisor

Negative prices are the dominant feature across NSW, VIC, QLD, and SA right now, with predispatch showing the deepest troughs between 8:00 PM and 11:30 PM AEST tonight. NSW predispatch is tracking as low as -$8.92/MWh in the 11:00–11:30 PM AEST window, with sustained negative pricing forecast through to around 2:30 AM AEST. VIC is similarly suppressed, with intervals touching -$9.67/MWh around the 11:00 PM–1:00 AM AEST band. QLD is the standout, with predispatch showing prices as deep as -$25.01/MWh concentrated between 10:30 PM and 3:30 AM AEST — the most compelling load-shifting opportunity on the NEM today. SA is also running negative across much of the overnight period, with troughs near -$13.75/MWh around 1:30 AM AEST, though SA's price volatility is notable: predispatch shows prices spiking back above $100/MWh as early as 6:00 AM AEST and climbing toward $299/MWh by 8:00 AM–8:30 AM AEST, so timing precision is critical in that region.

The clear window to load in is tonight from approximately 8:00 PM to 3:30 AM AEST across NSW, VIC, and QLD, with the deepest savings achievable in QLD between 10:30 PM and 2:30 AM AEST. VIC and NSW offer their best windows from roughly 9:00 PM through 2:00 AM AEST. For SA-connected loads, the optimal window is tighter: 11:30 PM to 4:30 AM AEST before the morning price spike takes hold. TAS predispatch remains elevated at $75–$89/MWh throughout the forecast horizon, with data quality flagged as "fair", so Tasmania presents no attractive shift window today and operators should consume at minimum feasible load until conditions change.

The period to avoid across all mainland regions is from 5:30 AM AEST onward on 22 April. NSW prices are forecast to climb toward $35–$40/MWh by 6:00 AM AEST. SA is the sharpest risk, with predispatch flagging prices above $200/MWh from 6:00 AM and approaching the market cap by 8:00–8:30 AM AEST — any flexible load in SA must be off or at minimum by 5:30 AM AEST at the latest. QLD transitions from negative to positive (~$5–$20/MWh) from roughly 5:30 AM AEST as the overnight surplus eases.

**Recommended load schedule:** Set flexible loads to maximum between 10:30 PM and 2:30 AM AEST in QLD, 9:00 PM to 2:00 AM AEST in NSW and VIC, and 11:30 PM to 4:30 AM AEST in SA. Begin ramping down no later than 5:00 AM AEST in all regions. Curtail or minimise SA loads by 5:30 AM AEST given the speed and magnitude of the morning price recovery forecast there. TAS flexible loads have no advantageous window today and should be deferred or scheduled to system need.