commodity demand sa — SA1

South Australia's spot price sits at $103.44/MWh with demand at 1,385 MW as of 06:30 AEST, placing the region in its evening ramp-up phase. The price-demand relationship across today's trading day has been sharp and clearly defined: overnight demand bottomed near 490 MW between 11:30 AEST and 13:00 AEST, where prices repeatedly printed negative — reaching as low as -$13.53/MWh — before demand climbed through the afternoon. The morning peak between 18:30 AEST and 19:30 AEST (local time equivalent) saw demand reach 1,720 MW with prices holding in the $88–$138/MWh band, confirming a tight supply stack at those load levels. The current 1,385 MW demand level is pushing prices back above $100/MWh as the evening demand shoulder builds, with wind generating 386 MW and gas CCGT contributing 216 MW against zero solar output at this hour.

The forecast demand trajectory points to a sustained elevated price environment through the early morning hours. Forecast RRPs for the 07:00 AEST half-hour target are clustering in the $103–$138/MWh range across multiple pre-dispatch runs, with the 08:00–09:00 AEST window attracting forecasts of $229–$299/MWh — consistent with the morning demand ramp SA experiences as commercial and industrial load comes online. The 09:30–10:30 AEST window shows forecast RRPs of $120–$170/MWh across multiple runs, indicating the market expects demand to remain elevated well into the business day before the midday solar-assisted demand trough suppresses prices back toward zero and negative territory, as occurred today between roughly 12:45 and 17:30 AEST.

A significant volume of AEMO market notices flags prices subject to review under the Manifestly Incorrect Inputs provision across a broad range of overnight intervals — from 03:30 through to 05:45 AEST — with one interval at 01:50 AEST confirmed unchanged. Traders should treat any settled prices in those intervals with caution until final confirmation is issued, as revisions could affect contract position valuations. The pattern of reviews is concentrated in low-demand, low-price intervals where input anomalies are more likely to be detectable against sparse dispatch signals.

Carbon intensity is currently 0.1759 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 64.1%, down from a midday high of 89.8% renewable penetration when demand was at its daily nadir and prices were near zero. As demand rises through the morning peak and wind generation remains the sole renewable contributor at this hour, intensity will track upward unless overnight wind conditions strengthen. The day's price structure — negative to low through midday, $100–$300/MWh through the morning peak — creates a clear arbitrage window for flexible load and storage operators, with the overnight-to-morning spread now well-established in both actuals and pre-dispatch signals.